Newyorkceramicsandglassfair – How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain the concept of odds percentages, why they are important and how to effectively determine whether there is real value in a soccer bet. As a regular punter with all three of the zeitge specialists (Keep, Match and Transfer markets), I have good knowledge of the leagues across Europe, but less of the peculiarities of the English Premiership, and so I have to find the value in the odds.
One method of identifying value is to run an analysis of match data to identify where the odds are being set too high. In the UK bookmakers, this is the preserve of the racing post. With the soccer markets, bookmakers are not in the business of setting the prices; they just toulating the prices. In that sense, the punter has to beat the bookmakers at their own game.
One way of doing that is to use an automated analysis of the league tables to identify where, when and why odds are being set to induce a betting reaction. The analysis can consider the number of goals scored, the number of bookings, home wins, away wins, the number of corners taken, open play (pokerlegenda) and all the other stats that you can think of.
Some of my own thinking on this (before I had access to the Best Bet Soccer numbers) was:
- “What’s the difference between the best two teams playing each other?”
- “Are the teams flexible in the way they play?”
- “Do the managers of each side want the players to play?”
- “Can the two teams play without confidence?”
- “Will injuries be a factor?”
- “Does confidence affect the motivation of the players?”
- “Can key players not play?”
- “Will psychological and emotional factors affect the teams attitude?”
All of the above would be very useful information and would be very useful advice. However, the pros and cons of analysing the respective leagues would have to be the subject of another article. I will suffice it by saying that it’s not feasible to analyse the prospective games on the basis of the number of goals scored and the number of bookings in each match.
One can validly assert that the managers and the clubs are fully aware of the likelihood of many of the players being injured orourses of the game. It’s just a shame that the punters haven’t been given these vital indicators.
Managerial panels andFC Weeklyof having a good season, but these rarely serve as inspiration for those who want to bet football betting Arbitrage, i.e. backing the home win, away win, score for and the draw, or the score at half time, full time, the number of bookings, bookings, home win, away win and – most importantly – the score at half time, full time, the number of corners taken and the number of corners not taken.
One can also Bet Football Arbitrage, but it won’t be easy. Bookmakers will often accept arb but with so many bookings it will be very hard to extract a genuine profit. However, there are some so-called “spotters” who claim to have been able to make large regular winnings by cleverly spotting factors in the football arb market which no one else seems to be able to pick. However, do these really exist?
There are also many “arbitrage specialists” who will say that it is now easy to bet in the UK soccer markets, due to the new televised football matches which are shown throughout the season. Apparently one can now find a match which will be played in the same city simultaneously with the home and away fans gathering in large numbers to bet on their chosen football clubs.
However, is this really possible? While the claim sounds plausible, unnoticed, it is highly unlikely. Perhaps the best way to explain the difference is to compare the odds of predicting the correct score in soccer matches in the UK and the equivalent odds in the US.
The odds of the draw in the British market are generally 1.96 (with the possible exception of the premium charge around the goal line), and the odds of the home win are 2.45 (with the possible exception of the premium of the away goal). The odds of the subscribed bookmaker being correct are thus 57% to 42%. As can plainly see, the difference of predicted scorelines and the resulting betting odds are slightly greater in the UK.